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In September 2020, Trump administration suspended US-aid to Ethiopia, attempting to intensify pressure on Ethiopia to possibly abandon the Ethiopian Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), as demanded by Egypt. US-aid to Ethiopia with the second largest population in Africa; 110 million people is around $800m a year. For comparison, US-aid to Egypt with a population of,103 million people is over $1.7bn.
The GERD is to Ethiopia what the Hoover Dam on the Nevada-Arizona border river completed in 1935, was to America, then known as Boulder Dam, which President Franklin Roosevelt called “a 20th century marvel” that would benefit the entire nation. Similarly, at the announcement of the GERD project in 2011, the late Prime Minister of Ethiopia Meles Zenawi, called the project “an expression of our commitment to the benefit of all the countries of the Nile Basin”. The Nile river basin covers over 10% of Africa’s landmass, in 11 countries: Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Egypt, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea and Kenya. None of these countries wish to strangle Egypt and Sudan by depriving them of water. Nevertheless, they understand that colonial Britain had no rights whatsoever, to give 80 % of the entire Nile water to one country Egypt. They too are entitled to its equitable usage for their national development.
President Franklin Roosevelt’s dream project, the Hoover Dam, has over the years proven to be a disaster. But the fact that the US failed in this particular project does not mean that others cannot succeeded. Africa as I have indicated in the past finds it easier to replicate China’s success as opposed to Western successes, after all wasn’t China a 3rd world country only 70 years ago! And isn’t china still a developing country? Yet, year over year, China creates more new hydropower capacity than the rest of the world combined. It is not surprising therefore, that African model of development would be more of a China approach than Western models.
As America was cutting aid to Ethiopia, in Covid 19 pandemic period, when aid was most needed; not just in Ethiopia, but the entire continent; The Government of the People’s Republic of China, and the Chinese private sector, were increasing crucial supplies of testing materials and other medical equipment in Africa. Chinese billionaire Jack Ma Foundation and Alibaba Foundation, for example; at that critical moment, announced donations, including: 20,000 testing kits, 100,000 masks and 1,000 potective suits each, to every one of the 54 African nations.
In total, 1.1 million testing kits, 6 million masks and 60,000 protective suits were delivered to Addis Ababa, capital of Ethiopia, where Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali of Ethiopia took the lead in managing the logistics and onward distribution of the supplies across the African counties, including Egypt. Note that there was no discrimination, nor favour to any of the 54 countries.
It is worth noting that, ever since the outbreak of the Virus, American president Trump has had two scape goats: China and the Ethiopian WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, whom he calls a Chinese puppet. Many ordinary Africans keep wondering, whether US attitude towards WHO, would have been the same if Dr. Ghebreyesus, had not been an African.
Africans are not happy with blackmail and lectures:
I have emphasized in the past that Modern China is not much older than many independent African countries. Modern China was created in 1949, yet by 1950 China was standing against American aggression. And as I have equally indicated, in 1949 and much of 1950s; China was still as poor if not poorer than a number of African countries. Yet she could stand against the world supper power. Wouldn’t this be a dream for Africans? At a minimum, for a while; Africans would want to take a lead in solving African problems, such as the Egyptian /Ethiopian GERD issue, without undue interferences and blackmail.
Indeed, the African Union with its chairman Cyril Ramaphosa is trying to mediate a tripartite agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, on the pace at which the dam could be filled. The pace at which the dam could be filled, not whether it should be filled or bombed. Does it make moral sense for President Trump to propose a warrior solution?
As if cutting aid was not bad enough, On 23 October 2020, Trump added more fuel to the fire. At a press conference in Washington DC when asked about an agreement on the GERD: Trump as usual chose carelessness over caution and diplomacy, “ it’s a dangerous situation because Egypt is not going to be able to live that way and they’ll end up blowing up the dam”. Why would America encourage war between two of the most populous nations in Africa; Egypt and Ethiopia? President Trump may not fully understand geopolitics, but sure he ought to know that if Egypt was to bomb GERD, this is likely to lead to literiation and most likely a war that will draw in several Arab and African countries. To whose benefit would this war be? A commentary by an African widely read online publication theconversation.com under the tittle : Suspension of US aid to Ethiopia is yet another example of Trump’s disregard for Africa” points out that :
“By accepting US support, Egypt has shown it would rather ally with the US than depend on the dispute resolution mechanism within the continent. Moreover, its use of the Arab League to make statements that portray the dam standoff as a challenge to Arab states undermines African calls for continued discussion”
America’s decision to cut aid will not be appreciated by many in sub-Saharan Africa. So far, the African Union continues to insist that an African solution can be achieved for an African problem.
On the same madness, Prime Minister Abiy added angrily: “Ethiopia will not cave into aggression of any kind [it] may be confronted by poverty but [we] are rich with history, patriotic citizens whose commitment to defend their citizens is unparalleled.”
Business sense and sense of ownership.
Ethiopian leaders have taken unusual steps to fund the GERD, which is projected to cost $4.8 billion. Characteristically, such projects are financed through Western international organizations such as the World Bank; but all these would have come with Western conditionalities, and America and its allies would have put the world bank under pressure not to fund the project. Proud Ethiopia, the only African country that was never colonized, was well aware of colonial treaties related to the White Nile. As a result, most financing for the GERD has come from domestic sources, domestic taxes, sales of government bonds to Ethiopians at home and abroad, and a national lottery. The only non-Ethiopian monies are said to be from Chinese banks that will provide funding for the dam’s turbines and electrical equipment.
Is this partly funding of the GERD, by some Chinese bank the reasons why the US would be so upset? Or is the US trying to fight proxy war with China in Africa? China Africa cooperation is irreversible, will each time an African country associates itself, with China face American wrath? In my last article I indicated how back in 1981, a Tanzanian foreign affairs minister Salim Ahmed Salim, made precedence by offering his candidature as UN Secretary General and was halted by US’s veto just because, Tanzania was assumed to be too close to China. Now almost 40 years ago, the USA is trying to block the first African leader to WTO, Ms Okonjo-Iweala, 66, Nigerian, who also happened to have been Nigeria’s first female finance and foreign minister. Reason? Once again: China! China! China! US was the odd man out at the late October meeting that was to endorse Minister Okonjo-Iweala, all other delegates were in support of her, but the US had rather have her South Korean competitor; just because it is assumed a Nigerian might be close to China. Thank God apparently EU is with other members this time, but who knows…
The West is always coercing Africa to make strange choices, Africa has to learn however, to choose with its benefits in mind as a Czech Proverb says: Do not choose your wife at a dance, but in the field among the harvesters.
Mweusi Karake is a veteran journalist and former head of Public Relations/Corporate Communication at the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA).
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