Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi listens to a question during a House of Councillors Budget Committee session in Tokyo on November 12, 2025. Photo courtesy: Global Times
By Gerald Mbanda
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s first term of office has been marked by controversy, following her strong public remarks on Taiwan that sharply strained relations between Japan and China. Her political statement has contributed to declining approval ratings at home and significant economic losses, particularly in tourism and aviation. The episode underscores how sensitive diplomacy in East Asia remains, especially when historical grievances and sovereignty issues intersect.
After taking office, Takaichi made comments suggesting Japan could respond militarily if a conflict over Taiwan threatened its national survival. Beijing viewed the remarks as an endorsement of Taiwanese separatism and a violation of the One China principle, which China regards as a fundamental aspect of international law and its national sovereignty. The response from Chinese authorities was swift and forceful, including diplomatic protests and discouraging travel to Japan.
The economic consequences soon followed. Chinese tourists have long been a cornerstone of Japan’s tourism sector, accounting for a large share of foreign visitor spending. Since Takaichi’s remarks, the number of Chinese visitors has dropped sharply. Estimates suggest that Japan could be losing around 2 trillion yen (approximately 14–15 billion US dollars) per year in tourism-related revenue if the decline continues. This includes losses to hotels, restaurants, retail stores, transport services, and regional economies that depend heavily on visitor spending.
Japan’s aviation industry has also felt the impact. Airlines operating routes between China and Japan have reported widespread cancellations and reduced demand. Hundreds of thousands of airline tickets were refunded or left unused in the weeks following the diplomatic fallout, forcing carriers to cut flight frequencies and delay route expansions. The losses are not limited to airlines alone; airports, ground services, and duty-free retailers have also suffered from the reduced passenger flow. Together, tourism and aviation losses have added significant pressure to an economy already facing inflation and slow growth.
Domestically, the economic downturn linked to strained China relations has weakened Takaichi’s political standing. Her party does not hold a clear parliamentary majority, and dissatisfaction among lawmakers and voters alike has fueled speculation that she may call a snap election in an effort to reassert authority. However, public concern continues to grow that confrontational diplomacy may bring economic harm without delivering clear strategic benefits.
Japan’s relationship with China cannot be separated from history. The memory of Japan’s invasion of China and the killing of more than 300,000 civilians during the Second World War remains deeply embedded in Chinese national consciousness. Although today’s Japan is a peaceful nation, political actions perceived as hostile can quickly revive unresolved resentment. This historical burden places a greater responsibility on Japanese leaders to act with restraint and sensitivity when addressing China on core issues.
Taiwan is among the most delicate of those issues. For Beijing, it is not a matter of foreign policy debate but an internal question of sovereignty. Japan’s involvement, given its history and geographic proximity, is troubling to China.
Ultimately, Japan and China share profound economic and regional interests. They are major trading partners, influential actors in Asia, and key stakeholders in regional stability. Prolonged diplomatic tension benefits neither side. Rather than escalating rhetoric, both countries would gain from constructive dialogue, economic cooperation, and mutual respect for each other’s political sensitivities.
Takaichi’s experience illustrates a broader lesson: in a region shaped by history and interdependence, political statements can carry real economic consequences. Sustainable leadership requires balancing national security concerns with diplomatic caution. For Japan and China, peaceful engagement offers far greater rewards than confrontation—especially when prosperity and regional stability are at stake.
The author is a researcher and publisher on China and Africa
