COVID-19 cases surging in Africa at fastest rate this year, but deaths remain low

Published: September 16,2021

Updated forecasts warn that Africa may not reach 70 percent vaccine coverage until August 2024.

With the total number of recorded cases during the pandemic standing at 8.9 million, Africa recorded more than 196,000 new cases last week, up from around 107,000 in the previous week.

The World Health Organization has said that the number of new cases is currently doubling every five days, the fastest rate this year. Although “the speed of the spread is fast, deaths remain low and even dropped by 19 percent last week compared with the previous week”, the UN health agency reported.

Currently in its fourth wave, Africa counted a little over 3,000 deaths reported during the first three weeks. According to WHO, around half as many cases were reported in the same time frame during the third wave, which was fueled by the Delta variant.

“This upsurge in new cases coupled with low hospitalizations is particularly marked in South Africa which has experienced a 66 percent rise in new cases during the past seven days compared with the previous period”, the assessment revealed.

Hospitalizations have increased by 67 percent in the past week, but the bed occupancy rate for intensive care units remains low at 7.5 percent. Though deaths also remain low, this data should be interpreted with caution as the pattern may change in the coming weeks, WHO alerted.

We are cautiously optimistic that deaths and severe illness will remain low in the current wave, but slow vaccine rollout in Africa means both will be much higher than they should be,” said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa.

Speaking during a virtual press conference, Dr. Moeti added that knowing that new variants could regularly emerge to spark new outbreaks globally, “vaccine-deprived regions like Africa would be especially vulnerable”.

Vaccination coverage remains highly variable across the region. Current data shows that only 20 African countries have vaccinated at least 10 percent of their population, a target that WHO had set for September 2021.

And only six countries have hit the year-end target of fully vaccinating 40 percent of their population. Mauritius and Seychelles have reached 70 percent coverage, which is essential for controlling the pandemic, said the agency.

At the current pace, WHO estimates that it will take until May of 2022 before Africa reaches 40 percent coverage and August 2024 before it reaches the 70 percent mark.