China-Vietnam relations won’t be derailed by U.S. spanner in the works

Published: December 12,2023

By Stephen Ndegwa

People hold flags of Vietnam and China for a photo in Shanghai, China, October 31, 2020. /CFP

For obvious reasons, the United States has lately made forays into Vietnam. But maybe the reasons are not that obvious to those yet to discern the superpower’s strategy of fomenting regional instability to divide and rule countries or isolate one that poses a threat to its hegemony.

History is repeating itself as the U.S. seeks, as it did in the run-up to the Vietnam War in the 1950s, to gain a foothold in Southeast Asia, which was then predominantly communist. In 2018, the U.S. claimed that tool chests made in China and Vietnam were being dumped in its market, thereby raising prospective import duties on the products to 327 percent. In 2019, the U.S. doubled down its trade war propaganda with China with claims that Vietnam was seeking favor with the superpower by slapping anti-dumping tariffs on certain Chinese goods.

In September, Washington signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with Hanoi aimed at moving the former’s reliance on semiconductors and other strategic resources from China. But the U.S. is deluded to imagine that it can sabotage the strong and growing trade and diplomatic relations between Beijing and Hanoi.

After achieving what Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao called “fruitful results” during a meeting with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh in Ho Chi Minh City on November 25, the two partners are now focusing on strategic areas such as the digital economy, green development, and cross-border e-commerce.

China is way ahead of the pack. China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner, with data from the former General Department of Customs showing that in 2022, trade between the two countries was worth $175.57 billion. The U.S. came in second with trade worth $123.86 billion, followed by the Republic of Korea $86.38 billion, and Japan $47.61 billion.

Main Chinese exports to Vietnam include machinery, nuclear reactors and boilers, electrical and electronic equipment, plastics, iron and steel, and knitted fabric. Main Vietnam exports to China include cotton, footwear, gaiters and accessories, fruits and nuts, fish, and aquatics. This is the supply chain that the U.S. is targeting and positioning itself as the better trading option with Vietnam.

China and Vietnam are immediate neighbors who share a 1,297-kilometer terrestrial border. The shortest distance between Vietnam and the U.S., measured via airline, is more than 13,000 kilometers. A flight takes at least 16 hours, depending on the cities between the two countries. That is a long shot by any standards, which shows how far the U.S. is ready to go to create disharmony between China and Vietnam, and the region as a whole.

Vietnam is also a major supporter of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As Vietnam grows economically, it needs commensurate infrastructural development, which the BRI can offer cost-effectively. According to the Global Infrastructure Outlook, Vietnam’s infrastructure needs, including road, rail, airports, ports, telecoms, electricity, and water, will hit $605 billion from 2016 to 2040.

People take photos next to the China-built Cat Linh-Ha Dong metro line, which is the first metro line in Vietnam to start commercial operation, in Hanoi, Vietnam, November 6, 2021. /CFP

It is also instructive that China and Vietnam are both socialist countries. Although this would not necessarily make them automatic friends, it means that they would stand together in case of conflict. Hanoi may not have such a short memory, after all. The Cold War induced the Vietnam War, where the U.S. and its allies were vanquished by Vietnam’s communist forces, which is still vivid in the world’s modern history.

At least 3 million Vietnamese soldiers and civilians died in the Vietnam War which pitted the communist North Vietnam government and the then U.S. proxy South Vietnamese government. According to official records in the U.S. National Archives, the superpower lost 58,220 soldiers. The Vietnam War has gone into history as one of the most traumatic military engagements of the U.S. abroad.

To save face, Hollywood produced the “Fall of Saigon,” a feel-good movie that attempts to depict the bravado of the country’s soldiers in Vietnam. Unfortunately, this will never erase the fact that with all its unmatched military equipment, it lost to a determined and innovative rudimentary army. Hanoi understands the danger of coming too close to a wounded lion. It would be foolhardy to turn a blind eye to an ugly past, while the lessons learned are still fresh in the psyche of both countries.

In sum, the markets of China and Vietnam are closely linked, and the industrial and supply chains are deeply integrated. Even though Hanoi and Washington recently upgraded their relations, it’s an ironclad fact that the economic cooperation between China and Vietnam maintains a stable momentum and that China plays a pivotal role in Vietnam’s foreign trade.

 Stephen Ndegwa, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is the executive director of South-South Dialogues, a Nairobi-based communications development think tank.

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