China’s role in global economic growth in 2024

Published: January 01,2023

By Fabio Massimo Parenti

People walk on a pedestrian shopping street in Changsha, central China’s Hunan Province, December 21, 2023. /CFP

The serious international crises that erupted in 2023 – from the prolonged war in Ukraine to the recent conflict in the Gaza Strip, not to mention the numerous U.S. provocations in the South China Sea – have generated at least two detrimental effects on the global economy. The first one coincided with an increasingly strong U.S. attempt to destabilize the world’s interlinked supply chains using tariffs, duties, sanctions, and closures. The second one – a direct consequence of what has just been said – involved the risk of prompting a “new Cold War,” absolutely detrimental to economic development and thus the well-being of the human community with a shared future – the same community in which we all live.

Consequently, if the economic cycle has gone from growth to slowdown – with the world entering a cycle of low economic growth – it is due to a combination of factors, primarily those just listed. The Western attempt to sabotage the relationship between China, the United States, and the EU – the most important economic powers in the world, on which the fate of the planet depends – has damaged companies, businesses, and families. On the contrary, it will be necessary to reverse the mistakes made in the last years. How? Pushing for multilateralism is the only way to generate a shared economic recovery, where each country will contribute to the world economic cycle according to its means.

Moreover, the general climate should not espouse a “new Cold War” or zero-sum game dynamics. On the contrary, only by fostering collective growth will it be possible to get out of the quicksand in which the world is in danger of sinking. To do so, the watchwords will be collaboration, cooperation, and mutual benefit. In essence, there is an urgent need to strengthen inclusive multilateral collaboration as the world faces the risk of a global economic recession as well as a growing number of shared challenges, including climate change.

To achieve this goal, efforts should be made to better include developing countries in global economic governance and to ensure that the benefits of globalization are fairly distributed among different populations. In all this, China will do its utmost to foster detente and dialogue. It will not seek decoupling and, on the contrary, will safeguard the stability of the global supply chain in the name of shared welfare against the international rise of protectionism and nationalism.

Talking about China, the annual Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 11 and 12 served Chinese leaders to decide on priorities for economic work in 2024. At the meeting, it was noted that the Chinese economy has achieved a recovery, with solid progress being made in high-quality development in 2023. Overall, favorable conditions outweigh unfavorable factors in China’s development, and the fundamental trend of economic recovery and the positive long-term outlook have not changed.

People take photos at the entrance to a market event at the Bund Central Square in Shanghai, east China, December 22, 2023. /CFP

As for next year’s economic work, the meeting called for efforts to pursue progress while ensuring stability. The numbers are illustrative of how China will contribute to the global economic recovery. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of consumer goods, one of the main indicators of a country’s consumption strength, totaled 38.54 trillion yuan (about $5.37 trillion) from January to October, up 6.9 percent year-on-year.

Taking the consumption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) as an example, new diversified products and services in the market offer more choices to consumers with new technological features. In the first three quarters of 2023, global sales of NEVs reached 9.75 million units, with China contributing 6.28 million units, or over 64 percent, according to data released at the 2023 World New Energy Vehicle Congress.

Goldman Sachs and UBS, meanwhile, expressed optimism for China’s economic outlook in 2024. Goldman Sachs, in detail, said that Chinese consumption next year will continue the recovery momentum of 2023. China’s retail trade growth, including both goods and services, is expected to increase by 5 percent in 2023, with similar projections for the next few years, making China the fastest-growing market globally, according to a recent McKinsey report.

China will therefore play its part. It will be up to the U.S. to lay down the hatchet and return to the path of sincere dialogue.

Fabio Massimo Parenti is  a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is an associate professor of International Studies at China Foreign Affairs University, Beijing, and a member of various think tanks.

cgtn.cn