How Many More Years Can the US Suppress China?

Published: June 11,2024

By Qingjie XIA

Abstract: It generally takes about 30 years to see major changes in China’s national affairs. Thus, after China overtook Japan as the world’s second largest economy in 2010, the U.S. suppression of China will be able to continue until about 2040. The U.S. suppression of China’s main grip rests on the U.S. mastery of advanced technology. Since the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Coummunist Party (CCP) in 2012, China’s high-tech enterprises have risen in large quantities, and China has also launched the “Belt and Road” initiative as a representative of China as a leading or major participant in the internationalization process aimed at promoting the economic development of the vast number of third-world countries. More critically, since its founding in 1921, the ChineseCommunist Party (CCP) has led China’s revolution and nation-building from victory to greater victory. Therefore, there is reason to believe that by 2040 or so, China will have made a comprehensive breakthrough in “neck-breaking” technologies and will be an international leader in unknown technological fields, and the internationalization led by China to promote the development of the developing countries will have made greater progress. By that time, the United States will have nothing to hold on to even if it wants to suppress China.

1. Introduction

As the saying goes, “Thirty years east of the river, thirty years west of the river.” It generally takes about 30 years to see major changes of national affairs in China, from the founding of the Communist Party in 1921to the founding of New China in 1949 took about 30 years (29 years). With the support and funding of the Communist International under the leadership of Vladimir Lenin, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was founded in 1921 on the path of Lenin’s October Revolution of 1917 (i.e., on the path of anti-imperialism, anti-feudalism, independence and autonomy). Since then, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, the Chinese people, after the Land Revolution, the War of Resistance Against Japan, and the Three-Year War with the Kuomintang, finally defeated the Japanese imperialists, drove the Kuomintang forces led by Chiang Kai-shek to the island of Taiwan, united the majority of China’s territories, and established the New China in 1949.

The second 30 years, from 1949 to 1978, was the founding period of the new China. Just after the founding of the new China, the Korean War broke out in 1950, and in order to “protect China”, China sent its volunteer army to fight against the United States in Korea. With the support of the military industrial system of the former Soviet Union, the Chinese army fought the U.S. army to a draw and stabilized the battle line between North and South Korea at the “38th parallel” before the Korean war. Along with the “Korean War” campaign, China’s domestic “land reform” was carried out, i.e., land and houses of landlords and capitalists were confiscated and distributed equally to the vast number of landless peasants and citizens; a large-scale literacy campaign was carried out. Later on a nine-year compulsory education system was set up; a system of higher education institutions and state-owned scientific research institutes was established. After the Korean War, China received the 156 aided industrial projects from the former Soviet Union (after 1960, when Sino-Soviet relations broke down, the Soviet Union withdrew its experts and stopped all the aidedprojects), and with China’s own efforts, China finnallybuilt its own heavy industry system in the mid-1970s, realizing the “Two Bombs and One Star” and becoming a “nuclear power”. In 1964, the United States launched an invasion of Vietnam, which was essentially an attempt to encircle China, and China carried out the “Resist the US, help Vietnam” campaign. In 1973, with the help from China, the Vietnamese army drove the United States out of Vietnam by relying on China’s newly established heavy industry. In the first 30 years of China’s existence, China mainly broke the military siege imposed by the United States on China and maintained its territorial security. After becoming a “nuclear power”, China not only won international respect, but also became a major force for world peace.

It took about 30 years from the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CCP), which announced “reform and opening up” in December 1978, to 2010, when China overtook Japan as the second-largest economy. By taking advantage of the strategic rivalry between the U.S. and Soviet Union in the early 1970s and the U.S. attempting to draw China in to constrain the former Soviet Union, China normalized the relationship with the United States, and hence normalized relations with other Western countries. This laid the international foundation for the implementation of China’s “reform and opening-up” policy. The period between the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the U.S. in 1979 and the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991 provided a unique opportunity for China’s economic development. After the collapse of the Soviet bloc in 1991, the U.S. and other Western countries proudly proclaimed the triumph of “democracy” and “freedom” over “autocracy”; in addition, the small size of China’s economy at that time had not yet attracted the attention of the U.S. and other Western countries. Therefore, China took advantage of the period between the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the fight against terrorism in 2001 to vigorously build a socialist market economy, to complete the most difficult part of China’s reforms – the closure and merger of small and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, and China took advantage of its accession to the WTO to revise domestic regulations on a large scale in order to harmonize with international society. After that, China took advantage of the 10-year U.S. “anti-terrorism” campaign to overtake Japan becoming the world’s second-largest economy and the world’s largest manufacturing country in 2010.

After China became the world’s second-largest economy in 2010, the United States became alarmed about China, and the Obama administration, which came to power in 2009, implemented the strategy of the “rebalance” towards Asia, in which the United States withdrew from the war-torn regions of the Middle East and went all out to deal with China. In the field of international trade and economics, the Obama administration proposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in an attempt to exclude China from the U.S.-led international investment and trade circle. However, the Trump administration, which came to power in 2017, put forward the slogan of “America First”, withdrew from many international agreements, including the TPP, and made every effort to block China, denigrating China internationally, saying that China stole American technology, forced foreign enterprises in China to transfer technology, and subsidized state-owned enterprises to engage in unfair competition, the “Belt and Road” initiative is a “debt trap” and “neo-colonialism” for developing countries, and so on. In the field of economy and trade, it has provoked a trade war, substantially raised tariffs on Chinese products, restricted the export of high-end chips and equipment for manufacturing these chips to China, and banned the installation of 5G equipment developed by Huawei in the U.S. and other countries close to the U.S.; it has played the Taiwan card and the Xinjiang card to constrain China, and strengthened the surveillance of China by the “Five-Eye Alliance”, and has proposed the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and the establishment of the “QUAD” by the U.S., Japan, India and Australia. After coming to power in 2021, Biden administrationcontinued to maintain high tariffs on Chinese products, join other Western countries to block China, and on top of the “QUAD”, he pulled together the “US-UK-Australia (AUKUS)” core coterie against China, further restricting the export of high-technology products to China with the “high fence and the small yard”, and further raising tariffs on Chinese products, and even putting 100% tariffs on Chinese electric cars, and double its effort to sanction Chinese enterprises. No matter who comes to power in the future, the policy of suppressing China will not change.

So how long will the U.S. suppress China? According to the aforementioned theoretical assumption of “a big change in 30 years”, counting from 2010, the U.S. high-pressure policy towards China will continue until about 2040. To about 2040, China will become the world’s largest economy, make breakthroughs in various “neck-breaking” technological areas and thus become the most technologically advanced country. Then even if the United States want to suppress China, it has no means. The key is whether China will be able to make breakthroughs in “neck-breaking” technology areas and take the lead over the United States in technology in the next 15 to 20 years.

2. Lightning Rise of High Technology Enterprises and New Internationalization in China Since the 18th National Congress of the CCP

Since the 18th National Congress of the CCP, China’s high-tech enterprises have risen to prominence, with the emergence of the Beidou satellite navigation system, Huawei, BOE, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Shunfeng Express, DJI, Ningde Times, BYD, ByteDance, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Myriad Healthcare, Shangtang Science and Technology, LONGi Green Energy (a solar energy science and technology company), China’s high-speed railway, Changxin Storage, KDDI, Hikvision, Xunlei Networks, and Morning Glory Biotechnology, representing more than 300 thousands high-tech enterprises. The Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta have grown intotwo industrial zones where international cutting-edge high-tech enterprises gather. Today, China’s economy is dominated by capital-intensive and high-technology-intensive enterprises, and China’s exports are dominated by medium- and high-grade electromechanical products such as cell phones, computers, automobiles, electric vehicles, photovoltaic panels, lithium batteries, large ships, railroad locomotives, numerically-controlled machine tools, unmanned aerial vehicles, rare earths, graphene, and other intermediate inputs in the manufacturing industry.

Unlike the internationalization that took place between reform and opening up in 1978 and the end of the last century through participation in the U.S.-led internationalization, a new type of internationalization, led by or with China as a major participant, has accelerated since the new century, especially since the 18th National Congress of the CCP. In June 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established by six countries including China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to promote counter-terrorism cooperation in the Central Asia. In 2017, the SCO expanded for the first time, with India and Pakistan becoming full members of the SCO. The SCO expanded again in July 2023, with Iran becoming a full member of the organization. In 2006, the BRIC organization was established by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and in 2011 South Africa became a full member of the BRICS. The year of 2015 saw the establishment of the New Development Bank of the BRICS countries, headquartered in Shanghai of China. The expansion of BRICS took place again in 2024, when Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Ethiopia became full members of the organization, and BRICS became BRICS+. China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, and more than 150 countries have participated in the Belt and Road Initiative. The year of 2015 saw the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), with China at its core. After 10 years of development, the Belt and Road Initiative has borne many fruits. China put forward the initiative of “joining hands to build a closer China-ASEAN community of destiny” in 2013 (China acceded to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) in 1996). In November 2020, the fourth Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Leaders’ Meeting was held by video, after which a total of 15 Asia-Pacific countries, including the 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), marking the establishment of the world’s largest and most promising free trade area. The process of internationalization aimed at promoting the development of developing countries, in which China has taken the lead or is a major participant, is accelerating.

Among the many international cooperation frameworks led by China or in which China is a major participant, the Belt and Road Initiative, first proposed in 2013, hasborne the most fruits. From 2013 to 2023, China has signed more than 200 cooperation documents on the Belt and Road Initiative with more than 150 countries and 30 international organizations. The landmark projects completed include the China-Europe liner, the Monnet Railway in Kenya, the Addis Ababa Djibouti Railway in Ethiopia, the China-Laos Railway between Laos and Yunnan, the Jakarta Bandung High Speed Rail in Indonesia, the Peljesac Cross-Sea Bridge in Croatia, the Padma Bridge in Bangladesh, the Mekong River Bridge, the Port of Bire Dwarfos (Greece), the deepwater port of Lekki (Nigeria), the Gwadar Port of Pakistan, the Phnom Penh-Seaport Expressway in Cambodia, the Westport Expressway in Cambodia, Hanoi Metro Line 2A in Vietnam, etc. The construction of the Hungarian-Serbian High-Speed Railway, the East Coast Railway Project in Malaysia, the China-Thailand Railway Project, the Kuantan Port Expansion in Malaysia, and the Kyaukphyu Deep Water Port in Myanmar are progressing steadily. There are other countless completed projects and the ones under construction. By the end of 2022, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor had brought a cumulative total of $25.4 billion in direct investment to Pakistan, created a cumulative total of 236,000 jobs, and helped Pakistan add 510 kilometers of new highways, 8,000 megawatts of electricity, and 886 kilometers of the country’s core electricity transmission grid. The implementation of these projects has, firstly, led to a large number of jobscreated in the host countries and, secondly, to an increase in China’s exports. The exports to the countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative in 2023 accounted for almost half of China’s total exports. The implementation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative has not only brought about a significant reduction in the poverty rate of the host countries, but also greatly increased the income level of thosecountries. The fact that the new round of U.S. interest rate hikes from March 2022 has not triggered economic crises in developing countries like previous rounds is due to the implementation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has allowed many developing countries to find out that they can also use the RMB to trade with China, to build railroads, highways, wharves and bridges, and to sell all kinds of minerals and other economic resources to China. Thanks to the use of RMB for settlement, the economies of the countries concerned can continue to grow, mitigating the negative impact of the U.S. interest rate hike on the countries concerned. Since the new century, the rapid economic growth of emerging countries, especially China, has enabled emerging countries to begin to function as rivals to the Western countries. Unlike the hegemony of the West (military intervention in countries that do not listen to the West), China’s international development is mainly through building“infrastructure” in developing countries under the Belt and Road Initiative, realizing “connectivity”, with the aim of promoting the economic and social development of developing countries in the Third World. China adheres to the principle of “improvement by Confucius”, i.e., “to achieve what one wants to achieve, you must first help others achieve”.

Today China is not the same as it was before the 18th National Congress of the CCP. In 2010, China just overtook Japan to become the world’s second largest economy, and now China’s GDP is more than three times that of Japan’s. In 2023, China overtook Japan becoming the world’s top exporter of automobiles, and overtook South Korea becoming the world’s top shipbuilder and the world’s top exporter of ships. China is the world’s number one producer and exporter of pure electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic panels. China also has the Beidou satellite navigation system, which is on the same level as the U.S. GPS, and China is also the world’s second largest spacefaring nation, and China’s large airplane manufacturing has taken off. China has the world’s first and most advanced high-speed rail transportation system, China’s ports paved with 5G network cables on which self-driving trucks run are the most efficient in the world, China’s network communication system is almost the most advanced in the world, and China’s e-commerce services are the most developed in the world. In addition, China’s annual college graduates are the largest in the world, and in a few years China’scumulative number of college graduates will reach 200 million, and China will have the largest stock of college graduates in the world. With a middle-income class of about 400 million, China is the largest middle-income class country in the world, and thus China’smarket is also the largest in the world, which is extremely attractive to domestic and foreign manufacturers. In addition, since the 18th National Congress of the CCP, China has started the process of internationalization in which China is the leading or major player. Among them, the Belt and Road Initiative has attracted the participation of more than 150 countries and become the most influential international development brand.

3. Advantages of the Socialist Market Economy with the Chinese Characteristics

China’s greatest advantage is that it is a socialist country led by the Chinese Communist Party (the CCP). The CCP is a Marxist party founded on the anti-imperialist and anti-feudalist principles of Lenin and the experience of Lenin’s leadership of the Bolsheviks in Russia. The CCP has the experience of 28 years of arduous struggle against domestic enemies and the Japanese invaders before the founding of New China, the extremely strict organizational and political disciplines developed during the hard war years, the experience of building the country in the struggle against the U.S. empire after the founding of New China, the experience of rapid economic growth through the building of a socialist market economy and the integration into the international economic and trade system after the reform and opening-up, and the experience of resisting U.S. suppression, developing high-tech enterprises, and leading a new type of internationalization of its own since the 18th National Congress of the CCP. The CCP’s long-term rule has made it impossible for Western monopoly capital, led by Wall Street in the US, to influence the Chinese government’s decision-making, control China’s strategic industries, or interfere in China’s internal and foreign affairs. In other words, the long-term rule of the CCP guarantees China’s existence as one of the few truly independent and sovereign countries in the world. As long as it adheres to the CCP’s leadership, China will be able to overcome the U.S. suppression and build China into the most technologically and economically advanced socialist power in the world by the 100th anniversary of its founding.

Comparing with the US, China’s advantage lies in that in addition to the market economy, China also has government planning, state-owned enterprises, and state-owned capital. China usually formulates plans for 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, 30 years for high-tech industries that it sees fit, it formulates industrial policies to support the development of the industry. For example, the breakthroughs we see today in new energy vehicles and clean energy in China are actually the result of the government’s continuous planning 20years ago, 15 years ago, 10 years ago, and 5 years ago, which subsidized new energy research and development by new energy manufacturers, subsidized the purchase of new energy products by consumers, and forced cities to purchase and use new energy vehicles for their public transportation systems. After more than 20 years of planning and industrial policy support from several terms of government, China’s new energy vehicles and clean energy products have finally come to be the number one in the world. The Nobel Prize-winning Economist Professor Stiglitz (who served as chief economist in the Clinton administration and chief economist at the World Bank) recalled in an interview with the Financial Times: More than a decade ago, “I was in a meeting with the premier [Wen Jiabao] where he told the car companies: you have to be electric within five years or you’re out of here. China has made it clear it will be an EV country; we haven’t.” In the same interview, Prof. Stiglitzcommented, “The underlying problem is that the US did not anticipate a rival such as China.”

State-owned enterprises control strategic industries related to the lifeblood of the national economy, such as banking and finance, transportation, communications, energy and power, and provide economic and social development with State-owned banking and finance systems, State-owned power grids, State-owned railroads and high-speed rail systems, State-owned energy sources, State-owned communications systems, State-owned ports, State-owned highway systems, State-owned primary and secondary school and university education systems, State-owned water and power supply and gas supply systems, and State-owned medical and health-care systems, among others. State-owned infrastructure construction enterprises are also an important tool for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. Many of the “Belt and Road” projects are engaged in the building of infrastructure hardware such as high-speed railroads, high-speed railroads, subways, bridges, highways, power plants, ports and terminals, power grids, etc. in the signatory countries. The implementation of “the Belt and Road” cooperation projects gives China’s technologically advanced and experienced state-owned enterprises in infrastructure building a chance to show their skills. Some projects have high security risks, such as the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the GwadarPort in Pakistan, which need to be undertaken by state-owned enterprises.

State-owned capital is characterized by foresight and planning, focusing on the future, investing in strategic industries (including strategic ones owned by non-public enterprises), and fostering strategic industries through national industrial policies. State-owned investment capital still has the characteristics of “venture capital”, but compared with private venture capital, state-owned venture capital focuses more on whether the potential investee enterprises are in line with the country’s long-term industrial development plan, rather than short-term high returns. Science and technology innovation can be broadly categorized into “neck-breaking” technologies and innovation in uncharted areas. The “neck-breaking” technologies can be overcome by state-owned enterprises or non-public ones. Cases of breakthroughs in “neck-breaking” technologies by state-owned enterprises include the great success of “two bombs and one star” in the 1950s and 1960s under the nationalized system, and more recently, the national aerospace project, high-speed railroad system, Beidou satellite navigation system, the domestic large aircraft project, the development of engines for large aircraft, and the development of special high-voltage electricity transmission systems, automated port technology, LNG shipbuilding technology, etc. Successful cases of investment in high-tech projects of state-owned enterprises and non-public enterprises by large national funds as well as the science and technology innovation funds of provincial and municipal governments include lithium battery projects, electric vehicle projects, photovoltaic panel projects, other new energy projects, 5G communication systems, and the successful production of 7-nanometer 5G chips, etc. Of course, when the state-owned fund invested in non-public enterprises led to the success of scientific and technological innovation, the state-owned fund only plays a key role in it, but the task is carried out by the non-public enterprises’ scientific and technological personnel. Trump administration imposed an embargo on the export of high-tech products to China, and then China was forced to put more efforts on independently overcoming the “neck-breaking” technologies and products. This is the main reason for the establishment of the Chinese government’s large fund for high-end chip development.

Let’s use the Hefei model to illustrate how state-owned capital has helped both state-owned and non publicenterprises develop high-tech products. In 2008, Hefei municipal government invested RMB 17.5 billion yuanto bring in BOE when the latter was in a crisis, and helped BOE to develop into a giant enterprise producing electronic LED displays internationally. In 2011, Hefei municipal government invested a huge amount of money to bring in Lenovo Group. Lenovo Group, which settled in Hefei in the first few years, absorbed 40% of Hefei BOE’s LED capacity. After the introduction of Lenovo, it also attracted more than 300 enterprises in the laptop industry chain to Hefei. In 2017, the Hefei municipal government signed a strategic cooperation agreement with ZhaoyiInnovation, a leading domestic flash memory chip company, and co-funded the establishment of Hefei Changxin Storage Technology Co. According to the agreement, the Hefei government invested RMB 10 billion to account for 75%, and Zhaoyi Innovation invested 25%. In 2020, the Hefei municipal government invested RMB 7 billion yuan to bring in electric car maker NIO, which was on the verge of bankruptcy, and acquired a 24.1 percent stake in NIO. Hefei’s investment has helped bring NIO back from the dead and develop it into an influential EV manufacturer. The year of 2023 saw Volkswagen invest 7.5 billion RMB to set up an EV R&D center in Hefei. In addition, electric car giant BYD and many other high-tech companies have settled in Hefei. Of course, Hefei has had its share of failed venture capital investments, and the investments that have failed hadgone down the drain. Hefei municipal government has made huge returns from its successful ventures, its annual GDP growth rate was 8% from 2012 to 2022, and the disposable income per capita in Hefei now far exceeds the national average.

As for innovations in uncharted territories, since there are no clear objectives, it is difficult for the Government to plan for them, so they can only be left to numerous enterprises in the market to make trial and error, and explore. Since the reform and opening up, China has gradually developed an oceanic market economy. Recent innovations by non-public enterprises include 5G communication networks, 7nm 5G chips, memory chips, e-commerce (Jingdong, Ali), international e-commerce (Shein, Pinduoduo), express delivery (Shunfeng, Meituan), DJI drones, Chenguangbiotechnology, lithium batteries, photovoltaic panels, electric cars, cell phones, computers, etc. The main reason for the collapse of the former Soviet Union was the failure to develop a market economy, and its citizens considered their own system worse than the West’s because of unfulfilled incomes and consumption. The main reason why most of the technological innovations in China in recent years have come from enterprises rather than universities and research institutes is that enterprises engaged in the development of advanced technologies employ tens of thousands of researchers for R&D, for example, Huawei and BYD each employ about 100,000 scientific and technological personnel to engage in R&D. China’s universities and research institutes are mainly engaged in fundamental research, and since the reform and opening up of China, they have trained tens of millions of scientific and technological personnel for the society. The abundance of scientific researchers and engineers in recent years is due to the huge talent dividend brought about by the expansion of China’s higher education sector in 1999; in 1998 China’s colleges and universities could only enroll less than 1 million college students, while in 2008 China’s colleges and universities were able to enroll more than 7 million.

4. U.S. Economic Responses to U.S.-China Competition and Expected Outcomes

In the first part of this paper, we discussed the high-handed policies and measures of the United States against China. Now we turn to the policies adopted by the United States to promote its economic and technological development. The success of the Chinese model has led the U.S. to abandon its “liberal” tradition of government non-intervention in the economy and to adopt the same industrial policies that have been practiced in China. “The Chip and Science Act” of 2022, passed by the Biden administration, is designed to maintain U.S. leadership in semiconductors and AI by financially encouraging firms from so-called “democratic countries” to invest in the production of advanced chips in the U.S., and chipmakers investing in the U.S. are often rewarded with tens of millions of dollars. Under “the Chip and Science Act”, the U.S. government invested $11 billion to establish the U.S. National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC), which is designed to ensure that the U.S. is a world leader in semiconductor technology standards, design, manufacturing, and semiconductor engineering talent. In 2023, the Biden Administration passed “the Inflation Reduction Act”, which is designed to provide additional tax credits for qualifying clean energy facilities and electric vehicles. In May 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce created the Regional Technology and Innovation Hubs (Tech Hubs), with an initial investment of $10 billion to encourage the development of industries such as artificial intelligence, advanced computing, hardware and software, robotics, natural disaster prevention, advanced communications technologies, biotechnology, data storage and management, advanced energy technologies, and next-generation materials. In order to compete with China, the U.S. no longer sings the high-sounding words of “liberalism” and “free market”, but honestly copies China’s homework.

Even if the United States abandons the liberal tradition of government non-intervention in the economy and adopts China’s industrial policy, the return of manufacturing to the United States will be a long and painful process. This is mainly because after more than 30 years (from 1981 when Reagan came to power to 2016 when the Obama administration ended its term) of industrial transfer, the U.S. manufacturing industrieshad been hollowed out. In 2017 Trump came to power and began to encourage the return of the manufacturing industry, but so far, the situation of the manufacturing industry back to the U.S. is not optimistic. This is mainly due to the fact that after more than 30 years of industrial transfer, the United States has lost its industrial workforce, engineers and manufacturing traditions, and the lack of supporting enterprises, coupled with the high cost of labor in the United States, makes it difficult for the manufacturing industry to return to the United States to survive, unless the United States imposes extremely high tariffs on all imported products. If foreign products are not allowed to import, other countries could not get the dollar, then the dollar’s international reserve currency role will be in jeopardy, which will damage the United States as a currency reserve country status. Consequently, it is impossible for the United States to impose high tariffs on all imports. Consequently, due to the low price of foreign products, the United States high-cost factors, the manufacturing industry back to the United States will be extremely difficult. In the end, the United States can only bring back manufacturing in a few manufacturing areas such as chips, artificial intelligence and biopharmaceuticals, etc., where the United States has a technological monopoly, so as to balance its extremely high labor costs with high monopoly profits.

5. Concluding remarks

It took about 30 years from the founding of the CCP in 1921 to the founding of New China in 1949, and about 30 years from the founding of New China to the beginning of the “Reform and Opening Up” in 1979, and another 30 years from the Reform and Opening Up in 1979 to the time when China overtook Japan as the second largest economy in the world in 2010. Thus, this paper draws the experience that it takes about 30 years for China’s major national affairs to change. Based on this experience, this paper argues that the U.S. suppression of China could end by about 2040. This is because by 2040 China will have made breakthroughs in all “neck-breaking” technologies and will be in a leading position in many other unknown advanced technology fields. By that time, even if the United States wants to suppress China, it will not have any means then. Therefore, the key is to see whether China can make breakthroughs in “neck-breaking” technologies and take the lead in unknown advanced technologies in the 16 years from now to 2040.

Since the 18th National Congress of the CCP, China’s homegrown high-tech enterprises have risen, making China as a world leader in 5G communications, electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic panels, etc. Moreover, China’s Huawei has already made a breakthrough in the manufacture of 7-nanometer 5G chips by 2023, and Huawei’s Mate 60 cell phone loaded with a 7-nanometer 5G chip has already hit the market in that year. From the reform and opening up to the 18th National Congress of the CCP, China mainly used the U.S.-led internationalization system to conduct economic and trade interactions with countries around the world. Since the 18th National Congress of the CCP, China has started the internationalization process led by China or with China as the main participant, such as the expansion of the SCO, the BRICS, and more importantly, the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative, which has already been signed by more than 150 countries with China. China has also established the “Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)” for the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. After a decade of development, the Belt and Road Initiative has borne many fruits. From its founding in 1921, the CCP has been leading the Chinese people setting up New China in 1949, winningthe wars over US imperialism in Korea and Vietnam,  transforming China into a nuclear power through the production of the “two bombs and one star”, building China into an industrialized power since the reform and opening up in 1979, bringing about the rise of high-tech enterprises and the new internationalization process led by China since the 18th National Congress of the CCP in 2012. Therefore, we have reason to believe that in the next 15 to 20 years, China will have the ability to break through the “neck-breaking” technologies and take the lead in unknown high-tech fields, and bring about the new international system into new stages. By that time, the United States will not have any means to suppress China even if it wants to.

The Author: Qingjie XIA Professor in Economics at School of Economics, Director of Center for Human and Economic Development Studies (CHEDs), Peking University Beijing, China.